This collection features eleven resources on the topic of probability.

The resources feature:

  • Concept development lessons that focus on developing conceptual understanding of significant mathematical ideas.
  • Problem solving lessons that focus on the application of previously learned mathematics to non-routine unstructured problems.
  • Tasks that provide mathematically rich problems that come with work for students to peer assess.

The Mathematics Assessment Resource Service (MARS) is a collaboration between the University of California at Berkeley and the Shell Centre team at the University of Nottingham, with support from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The team is known around the world for its innovative work in maths education.

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Memory game: conditional probability

This task assesses how well students understand calculating conditional probability. Some of the tasks require either systematic listing or use of  tree diagrams.

The task features a ‘memory game’. In the game there are four cards, two have a picture of an apple on them, and two have a picture of bananas. In...

Lottery: systematic listing

This task assesses how well students understand systematic listing and expected value.

The task features a proposal for a lottery game. Players must pay a $1 fee to enter the lottery. They are given a card showing the numbers 1 to 6. Players cross through two numbers of their choosing. A bag contains balls...

Spinner bingo: systematic listing

This task assesses how well students understand systematic listing and possibility space diagrams.

A game uses two spinners marked in equal sections with the numbers 1 to 9. Players fill in nine different numbers on a card. Both spinners are spun, and the numbers added to make a score. If a player has that...

Representing conditional probabilities 1

This is a concept development lesson that is designed to assess how well students understand:

  • Conditional probability
  • Representing events as a subset of a sample space using tables and tree diagrams

A game has been devised where three white balls and three black balls are placed...

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